CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-08-07T12:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-08-07T12:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40430/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the West in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-08-07T12:00Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. This event is not clearly visible in STEREO A COR2 due to the location of the event. The source of this CME is an M3.9 flare from Active Region 14168 (N03W33) which peaked at 2025-08-07T11:31Z. This flare is visible in SDO AIA 94 and 131, along with field line opening visible in SDO AIA 171 and GOES SUVI 284, with additional dimming/EUV wave seen in SDO AIA 193 and 211. The arrival of this CME was not observed at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-08-09T22:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/40432/1 Model Inputs: 2025-08-07T12:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=41.0, Lat.=6.0, Speed=760.0, HalfAngle=24.0, Time21.5=2025-08-07T16:24Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-08-09T22:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=4 (kp)180=6 Other Location(s) Impact: BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-08-08T05:29Z Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-08-09T03:17Z STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-08-09T18:27Z Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-08-09T22:00Z OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-08-09T18:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250807_162400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250807_162400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250807_162400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250807_162400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250807_162400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250807_162400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250807_162400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250807_162400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250807_162400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250807_162400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250807_162400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250807_162400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250807_162400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250807_162400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250807_162400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 52.52 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2025-08-07T17:29Z
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